AION 2 enhancement
mechanics & math

Probability is not a schedule

A displayed 20% success rate does not promise one success every five attempts. Each attempt can still fail, and short sessions can land far above or below the long-run average. Treat the rate as a model input, not a countdown.

Expected attempts

When every attempt has the same independent success probability p, the long-run expected number of attempts is:

For several enhancement stages, the calculator evaluates every stage and adds the expected attempts and costs. It does not average all rates into one shortcut.

How failure correction changes the model

If the client increases the rate after each failure, attempts are no longer identically distributed. The calculator steps through the rising probabilities, caps them at 100%, and sums the chance of reaching each next attempt. This is sometimes called a pity or failstack-style mechanic, but the displayed in-game rule—not the nickname—must control the calculation.

When protection is worth comparing

Protection has value only relative to the loss it prevents. The calculator compares the expected unprotected recovery loss with the protection cost paid on attempts. A cheaper expected value is not automatically the best personal choice: limited materials, item replacement difficulty, and risk tolerance still matter.

Expected cost versus a safer budget

The expected value is useful for comparing strategies across many runs. A player planning one session usually needs a buffer because failure streaks happen.

Illustrative shape only. The actual gap changes with the selected rates, costs, penalties, and stages.

What the model cannot promise

The estimate is only as reliable as its inputs. It cannot detect an unpublished server-side rule, hidden cap, event bonus, rounding rule, or a Global value copied incorrectly from another region. That is why every preset shows its region, source status, and update date.